Steve Ballmer on Google's domination of on-line advertising:
Somebody better break through or you can short all media stocks right now.
This assumes, of course, that Google is a technology company, not a media company, and that it's growth will slow down. The problem with this logic is that every market share and revenue curve is pointing the exact opposite direction. Google's been beaten exactly twice. Once with Blogger (hello, Typepad) which is no longer the preeminent tool for personal publishing. But if you think of Google's blogging tools as including not just Blogger but also Adsense, Blogsearch and Reader, than you have a completely different equation. The second loss in Google's ledger is on Youtube's resumé, but that problem is past tense.
"Covergence" as a buzz word has lived and died through many false starts, but the convergence of media and technology is undeniable. Try convincing Fox/MySpace, NBC/iVillage, Time Warner/AOL, CondeNast/Wired or even Bloomberg otherwise. Oh yeah, and what's that other company... Orange? Grape? Nevermind.
Ballmer's marching order are clear and true: short all media stocks right now.
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